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Need advice: DTB @110 coop @16 EB @25
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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DTBK aulready established and doing well in all this markets u guys are talking about...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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msimon, thanks GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: User Joined: 5/9/2010 Posts: 1,418 Location: Nai
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@y . I dnt belidve the stocks beign mentiönd are overvalued . I believe investors are lookin into the future and factorin in the gud earnings thus the rapid rise in prices of stocks w/ expansion strategies e.g co-op , kcb etal ,is justified . Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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msimon wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:msimon, interested to know what discount you say NIC is trading on percentage wise or what you think is its intrinsic value. Share other counters on the NSE you think are trading below their intrinsic values and you can compare your notes with other Wazuans. Welcome to Wazua. [youcan'tstopusnow], i estimate NIC's intrinsic to be btn 60-55/- based on last years earnings.If i double their half year results and add a worst case senario, this equates to 65-60/-. I would be interested at present levels although if the stock falls low, i'll be dancing to the broker. the discount to value here is at worst 23% assuming you buy at 45. My target entry point is 41 and below. Kenya Re too is selling at abig discount to value, we estimate is at btn 20-17, to be abit conservative, i would put it at 17. For some time it has been trading below book. Co-op bank has an Intrinsic value of about 23-19 at 17. there's some margin close to 10% from intrinsic. Those are financials that are attractive and selling for less than intrinsic. For industrials and commercial, we use free cashflow to value them, most haven't been producing positive free cash and the ones that have are overvalued, (selling for more than 10x free cash per share.) Are you guys sure you know the meaning of the word "intrinsic value"?? Go check the financials balance sheet and you'll find its only kenya re trading below intrinsic value... Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/23/2010 Posts: 63 Location: Kampala
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guru267...in that case you mean book value, not intrinsic value. Because Kenya-Re is below book and intrinsic too and the rest of the discussed stocks
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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@guru... please read Warren Buffett's newsletters... there is a HUGE difference between book value & intrinsic value... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:@guru... please read Warren Buffett's newsletters... there is a HUGE difference between book value & intrinsic value... I know the difference between the two.... Intrinsic value is the ability for a stock to outperform its peers if bought at current share price while book value is the balance sheet stuff.... But thats according to WB... In finance book value and intrinsic value are one and the same Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/23/2010 Posts: 63 Location: Kampala
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Guru267, they are actually different.Intrinsic Value is the present value of all expected future cash flows for the firm, while BV is the value of shareholders equity in the balance sheet.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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Guru-which finance? Intrinsic value is effectively the pv of future income streams The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/19/2008 Posts: 4,268
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@msimon
and what is your take on KPLC? is it worth taking it up now? where would you place it in June 2010?
KK has really been winking at me but it has too much drama my sight is blurred.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/24/2010 Posts: 846 Location: KENYA
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I agree with @msimon and @waithaka. I must also add that to effectively use intrinsic value one must apply a discount rate (not less than 20%, WB uses 60%)to the intrinsic value and only then can it be a proper comparison to the exixting market value.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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The Merchant wrote:I agree with @msimon and @waithaka. I must also add that to effectively use intrinsic value one must apply a discount rate (not less than 20%, WB uses 60%)to the intrinsic value and only then can it be a proper comparison to the exixting market value. Effectively the margin of safety GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/24/2010 Posts: 846 Location: KENYA
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:The Merchant wrote:I agree with @msimon and @waithaka. I must also add that to effectively use intrinsic value one must apply a discount rate (not less than 20%, WB uses 60%)to the intrinsic value and only then can it be a proper comparison to the exixting market value. Effectively the margin of safety EXACTLY
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/23/2010 Posts: 63 Location: Kampala
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Wendz wrote:@msimon
and what is your take on KPLC? is it worth taking it up now? where would you place it in June 2010?
KK has really been winking at me but it has too much drama my sight is blurred. Wendz..KPLC is doesn't fit my criteria for a good investment. But i went through some numbers quickly and i realized it can be a good investment if regulations are removed. Because in the last 5 yrs sales have grown at 18% and this will increase in the future, plus profits have grown at 25% for the last 4yrs and will increase in the future. It currently has an earnings yield of about 19%. This would be a good candidate for a life insurance portfolio. But when you look at the opportunity cost, there are better investments on the NSE that have better value. But if it gets lower than this in the 120 ranges, it can be a good candidate for at least 10% of your portfolio,under the stalwart section.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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msimon wrote:Wendz wrote:@msimon
and what is your take on KPLC? is it worth taking it up now? where would you place it in June 2010?
KK has really been winking at me but it has too much drama my sight is blurred. Wendz..KPLC is doesn't fit my criteria for a good investment. But i went through some numbers quickly and i realized it can be a good investment if regulations are removed. Because in the last 5 yrs sales have grown at 18% and this will increase in the future, plus profits have grown at 25% for the last 4yrs and will increase in the future. It currently has an earnings yield of about 19%. This would be a good candidate for a life insurance portfolio. But when you look at the opportunity cost, there are better investments on the NSE that have better value. But if it gets lower than this in the 120 ranges, it can be a good candidate for at least 10% of your portfolio,under the stalwart section. @msimon ATI 120 FOR KPLC???? @vvs should see this post Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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And finally KCB has started waking up... Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/24/2010 Posts: 846 Location: KENYA
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@guru...whats your target for KCB? What a tricky stock to follow.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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guru267 wrote:And finally KCB has started waking up... I remember shouting myself hoarse when I was telling people that this giant is extremely underpriced and being punished unfairly. Luckily I never listened to anyone but my gut feelings
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Need advice: DTB @110 coop @16 EB @25
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