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Need advice: DTB @110 coop @16 EB @25
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2007 Posts: 8,776 Location: Cameroon
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Pick the best two, give reasons. Investment horizon, 6-12 months. qw's TA will be highly appreciated. Thank u. TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Cop some coop at 17. Likely to surpass 5 billion target. Foray into Juba expected to go well with that part of Eastern Africa expected to see rapid growth in the next few years. Hold for at least 2 years. You WILL get more than 50 percent return. Other choice is Equity. Reasons: M-KESHO, Laptop ni Lazima, James Mwangi, Kenyan Economy to have good growth in coming years, Regional foray into TZ and Rwanda and who in the world knows where next (Already in UG and S.S), Increased Government spending on agriculture, Housing Finance, Ability to be given cheap loans from overseas, na kadhalika. Timeframe: As long as at least 40 percent of Kenyans remain poor, or James Mwangi leaves (i.e not anytime soon. At least 10 years) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2007 Posts: 8,776 Location: Cameroon
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How 'bout the ignored DTB with its recent xplosive results?? TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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Take Equity and forget about the rest The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Wa_ithaka wrote:Take Equity and forget about the rest My brother from another GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/19/2010 Posts: 49 Location: Nairobi
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spread within HFCK, Coop, EB and DTB.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2007 Posts: 8,776 Location: Cameroon
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@wa-bushes, substantiate tafazali... TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/13/2006 Posts: 94 Location: Nairobi
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I am not going to recommend any yet. As for Southern Sudan, what will happen to the banks if the referendum is bungled? Knock hard and it will be opened. Ask and you will be answered. Seek and you shall find.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Murenju wrote:I am not going to recommend any yet. As for Southern Sudan, what will happen to the banks if the referendum is bungled? High risk High return. What will happen if the referendum is not bungled? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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Thaimoni Coop-s a Kenyan bank and Kenya will probably have the slowest economic growth in the EAC. SSudan is virgin territory DTB-awesome prospect but notice its only gone by 12% despite 100% profit growth since last year Equity- what is bad about Equity? I can see Ksh35 in a year's time The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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take all of them at right prices
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/23/2010 Posts: 63 Location: Kampala
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Well most of these banks are good, the only problem is that they are overvalued. At if you consider current and past growth trends to estimate value, the only bank i see selling below intrinsic value at the moment is NIC Bank. About which bank's shares are going to the moon, its really hard to know what the market is going to do next quarter let alone next week. But if you buy below intrinsic and hold something good may happen you you. If your holding EB, you may need to hold although its clearly selling above Intrinsic by a premium of about 31% based on last years results.But you may reduce some position and plough some cash in other financials.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2010 Posts: 116
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I can recommend to buy DTB @ 110, NIC @ 45-46, KCB @ 19 & CFC @ 88.
I am expecting DTS @150, NIC @57, KCB @24 & CFC @120 by April 2012.
EQUITY, CO OP, STANDARD CHARTERED & BARCLAYS are overvalued share
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2010 Posts: 116
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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msimon, interested to know what discount you say NIC is trading on percentage wise or what you think is its intrinsic value. Share other counters on the NSE you think are trading below their intrinsic values and you can compare your notes with other Wazuans. Welcome to Wazua. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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KIRTI wrote:EQUITY, CO OP, STANDARD CHARTERED & BARCLAYS are overvalued share Are you taking into account the half year results they posted? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2010 Posts: 116
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We have seen three major shocks during 2008 & 2009
1 The globle economic crisis
2 Prolonged drought
3 PEV
We have very good year 2010. but you cannot say coming years will be same of 2010. i will not suggest to buy any share of Financial sector with above 12 PE ratio. Safaricom shares are going down because of ZAIN price war. If they will go on Zap agressively & joint with other bank for mpesa then Equity will definetely come down.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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@kiriti,you are aware CFC will not be a single entity by 2011?.I agree with you on the four you named banks being too expensive i would also go for the mid caps.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/23/2010 Posts: 63 Location: Kampala
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:msimon, interested to know what discount you say NIC is trading on percentage wise or what you think is its intrinsic value. Share other counters on the NSE you think are trading below their intrinsic values and you can compare your notes with other Wazuans. Welcome to Wazua. [youcan'tstopusnow], i estimate NIC's intrinsic to be btn 60-55/- based on last years earnings.If i double their half year results and add a worst case senario, this equates to 65-60/-. I would be interested at present levels although if the stock falls low, i'll be dancing to the broker. the discount to value here is at worst 23% assuming you buy at 45. My target entry point is 41 and below. Kenya Re too is selling at abig discount to value, we estimate is at btn 20-17, to be abit conservative, i would put it at 17. For some time it has been trading below book. Co-op bank has an Intrinsic value of about 23-19 at 17. there's some margin close to 10% from intrinsic. Those are financials that are attractive and selling for less than intrinsic. For industrials and commercial, we use free cashflow to value them, most haven't been producing positive free cash and the ones that have are overvalued, (selling for more than 10x free cash per share.)
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2010 Posts: 116
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Thanks. As per CFC Q1 & H1 result it might go up.
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Need advice: DTB @110 coop @16 EB @25
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