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Safcom on a dive, whats going on?
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:kangi wrote:Gone are the days when having the critical mass meant everything. Remember when a certain detergent and cooking fat were the household names.I think they must have behaved in a similar fashion like safcon and wished away or rather waited to deal with the threats to their dominance at a later time.I believe this is a high stakes game and what the competitors require are the numbers before they agree on how much is "sustainable".But by then some chunk will have been off the safcon customers.In the office at least half of the guys who had hitherto no Zain line acquired them this week.Personally I had one and since Wednesday I loaded my phone Na chapa imekataa kuisha.Safcon better wake up and drink the coffee. @Kingi i read you and am sure they are working on something. Being honest with yourself how many of your friends with safaricom lines are now beeping you on your zain line to call them? you know what that means? someone is paying safaricom Dude i truly respect your optimism Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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If bharti withdraws this tariff,mambo yao kenya kwisha...hata walete ingine ya 50cents no one will bother...lets wait and see how the soap opera unfolds...it could go either way in the end. The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Gatheuzi wrote:I am still skeptical about the 3/= tarrif. Remember how zain unceremoniously withdrew the vuka tarrif? Pressure will affect revenues especially given that calling minutes may not increase proportionately, may force zain to rethink this. In the meantime however folks can continue to enjoy the party. That was the kuwaitis these r the muhindis
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:In the short term the safcom share price will CRASH below 5bob... I have 250k shares in this counter and i'm selling ALL at best market price come monday and i know many people who will do the same.... I've seen this game played before and its one safcom clearly can't win... Pole.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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This is all noise...unless someone comes up with the numbers saying SCOM has lost 20% of its market share then we Scom Shareholders should be concerned...btwn SCOM will announce their H1 numbers in 2 month time...i agree with AKS who said this is just an 'overreaction'....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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If this thing goes below 5 it will drag the index down with it. The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:A lot of pension funds and Foreigners will never let this Stock Sink... @the deal you seem to be abit delusional because if you look at the net sellers currently driving the stock down are all FOREIGNERS.... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:i agree with AKS who said this is just an 'overreaction'.... You're actually listening to Aly khan.... This dude has 50% of his portfolio in safcom what do you expect him to say?? Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/26/2009 Posts: 1,793
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>> @ p koli and vvs, am not a safaricom operative but wamutonyis mercenary conduct is questionable.....like qw with orange. there is a signature here that reads....KEEP YOUR WORDS SOFT AND TENDER, YOU MAY EAT THEM TOMORROW....and some of us may eat unpallatable words if safaricom fixes that supa ongea tariff at 1 bob....Do i say i felt betrayed when Yu hiked the data charges from 3bob per Mb to 10bob, i literally burnt the line...but am eating humble pie after paying 50bob to replace the line...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Those who have moved to zain should burn their safaricom lines... Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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sheep wrote:If this thing goes below 5 it will drag the index down with it. @sheep i beg to disagree.. The bull is alive... Safcom fell more than 5% on friday but the index barely fell 0.1% but i don't deny it will have a small effect.... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/26/2009 Posts: 1,793
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sparkly wrote:Those who have moved to zain should burn their safaricom lines... lol...I second that...just as a show of solidarity with low prices...and I foresee people switching off their phones to avoid bother, as communication degenerate from important matters to gossip...and NO this is not doom prophecy.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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There is no sector without competion in our economy and safcom will remain profitable,from 21b we cant crush to losses,dont you think even if safcom profit was 10 or even 7b this is still good earnings?. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,137 Location: Nairobi
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No more excuses for people to 'flash' me... I used to call back from Zain (when it was 6/-)... Now I sms them (@ 1/-) to get a Zain line!!! I have had a Zain line for ages... I also keep a Safaricon line but pole pole I have stopped using it... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: User Joined: 5/9/2010 Posts: 1,418 Location: Nai
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What is happening is that scom is beign repriced w/ the low calls regime in place. Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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the deal wrote:This is all noise...unless someone comes up with the numbers saying SCOM has lost 20% of its market share then we Scom Shareholders should be concerned...btwn SCOM will announce their H1 numbers in 2 month time...i agree with AKS who said this is just an 'overreaction'.... All mobile operators monitor thier air time sales and new subs to thier networks by the hour. MJ and Meza receive these reports by sms from thier NOC teams every 4 or so hours, and they may increase the receiving frequency. does anyone think that MJ will just be looking at the numbers decrease and not take action? infact i tend to think he might be seeing increases in revenue for now through interconnect and he wants to maintain it that way.... indeed it is an over reaction
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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Jamani wrote:the deal wrote:This is all noise...unless someone comes up with the numbers saying SCOM has lost 20% of its market share then we Scom Shareholders should be concerned...btwn SCOM will announce their H1 numbers in 2 month time...i agree with AKS who said this is just an 'overreaction'.... All mobile operators monitor thier air time sales and new subs to thier networks by the hour. MJ and Meza receive these reports by sms from thier NOC teams every 4 or so hours, and they may increase the receiving frequency. does anyone think that MJ will just be looking at the numbers decrease and not take action? infact i tend to think he might be seeing increases in revenue for now through interconnect and he wants to maintain it that way.... indeed it is an over reaction Yes, but the reaction might come a little too late. Remember the days when Zain, then Kencell used to charge per minutes costs irresective whether you talk for 1 sec or 60 secs. Safcom used the opportunity and Zain has never been able to catch up. The war chest that Airtel has is no joke pals.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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PKoli wrote:Jamani wrote:the deal wrote:This is all noise...unless someone comes up with the numbers saying SCOM has lost 20% of its market share then we Scom Shareholders should be concerned...btwn SCOM will announce their H1 numbers in 2 month time...i agree with AKS who said this is just an 'overreaction'.... All mobile operators monitor thier air time sales and new subs to thier networks by the hour. MJ and Meza receive these reports by sms from thier NOC teams every 4 or so hours, and they may increase the receiving frequency. does anyone think that MJ will just be looking at the numbers decrease and not take action? infact i tend to think he might be seeing increases in revenue for now through interconnect and he wants to maintain it that way.... indeed it is an over reaction Yes, but the reaction might come a little too late. Remember the days when Zain, then Kencell used to charge per minutes costs irresective whether you talk for 1 sec or 60 secs. Safcom used the opportunity and Zain has never been able to catch up. The war chest that Airtel has is no joke pals. @PK, The position Kencell had taken at that time was to sell the service to high class, they never gave a serious thought to install BTS-s in the lower part of nairobi, so then they stuck to thier guns on per minute and numbers where climbing none of thier upper market clients was leaving so their numbers seem ok, until they got to see numbers in safcom, thats when they decided on a trial basis to install a bts in Kariobangi and guess what on day one the network resources where doubled. Back to our story, the strategy Kencell took was a wrong one and you cannot compare the two, here we have a case where CCK has lowered the interconnect price and one company has reacted fast to lower its prices, the other is still studying to come up with sustainable business rates and respond by 1st of september
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:PKoli wrote:Jamani wrote:the deal wrote:This is all noise...unless someone comes up with the numbers saying SCOM has lost 20% of its market share then we Scom Shareholders should be concerned...btwn SCOM will announce their H1 numbers in 2 month time...i agree with AKS who said this is just an 'overreaction'.... All mobile operators monitor thier air time sales and new subs to thier networks by the hour. MJ and Meza receive these reports by sms from thier NOC teams every 4 or so hours, and they may increase the receiving frequency. does anyone think that MJ will just be looking at the numbers decrease and not take action? infact i tend to think he might be seeing increases in revenue for now through interconnect and he wants to maintain it that way.... indeed it is an over reaction Yes, but the reaction might come a little too late. Remember the days when Zain, then Kencell used to charge per minutes costs irresective whether you talk for 1 sec or 60 secs. Safcom used the opportunity and Zain has never been able to catch up. The war chest that Airtel has is no joke pals. @PK, The position Kencell had taken at that time was to sell the service to high class, they never gave a serious thought to install BTS-s in the lower part of nairobi, so then they stuck to thier guns on per minute and numbers where climbing none of thier upper market clients was leaving so their numbers seem ok, until they got to see numbers in safcom, thats when they decided on a trial basis to install a bts in Kariobangi and guess what on day one the network resources where doubled. Back to our story, the strategy Kencell took was a wrong one and you cannot compare the two, here we have a case where CCK has lowered the interconnect price and one company has reacted fast to lower its prices, the other is still studying to come up with sustainable business rates and respond by 1st of september Whatever their response safcoms revenue, profit, and share price is headed lower. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/13/2008 Posts: 558
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The contest here is between the mighty Idians and the arrogant Brits. In the recent past, indians are outsmarting the brits in many businesses. Eg. In india, Bharti Airtel is the leading mobile phone company with 137 Million subscibers. Vodaphone is ranked 3rd with 80 Million.
Though the contest is in a different wavelength in kenya, kenyan market is and has always been unique. The mighty SAB Millers were humbled in kenya. My bet is these indians will be humbled too. Even if they have big/deep pokets like slim helu, they cannot sustain the pricing strategy that they have adopted in the longterm.
Assuming that safcom can afford to loose 10% of marketshare as a result of the price wars and still maintain current pricing, indians will still have a long way to go to achieve any profits.
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