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2010 Full year Stocks Watch
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bss
#1 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 1:36:07 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/19/2010
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
This newbie narrows the list to the financial sector and says the top 4 NSE counters going to full year are:

- Cooperative Bank
- Equity Bank
- HFCK
- Diamond Trust Bank

Foreign investors, hoist they shall.

Elders, experts and wazuarians, what are your picks?
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ProverB
#2 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 2:17:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
bss wrote:
This newbie narrows the list to the financial sector and says the top 4 NSE counters going to full year are:

- Cooperative Bank
- Equity Bank
- HFCK
- Diamond Trust Bank

Foreign investors, hoist they shall.

Elders, experts and wazuarians, what are your picks?



the portfolio mixes of various guys on the fantasy market point to their thoughts.. confirm
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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yekeyeke
#3 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 3:53:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/4/2008
Posts: 345
PSS. Would you have a link we can check how this was arrived at or is this just gut feel?
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bss
#4 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 4:11:31 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/19/2010
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
@ProvB - will do, thank you for the reverse engineering. I hope more importantly the reasons for the buys/sells can also be accessed.

@yekeyeke - once the European holiday calendar is over, the fund managers should be more willing to access this market given the recent & on-going +vely high profile political developments and economic casts.

For me, a combination of most of these factors drew me to that list:-

- placing in the fast growing financial and/or construction sectors that are huge beneficiaries of the improved economy
- stellar performer in that sector
- innovators
- political goodwill going forward
- market sentiment

My 2 Cents.
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PKoli
#5 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 4:26:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
bss wrote:
@ProvB - will do, thank you for the reverse engineering. I hope more importantly the reasons for the buys/sells can also be accessed.

@yekeyeke - once the European holiday calendar is over, the fund managers should be more willing to access this market given the recent & on-going +vely high profile political developments and economic casts.

For me, a combination of most of these factors drew me to that list:-

- placing in the fast growing financial and/or construction sectors that are huge beneficiaries of the improved economy
- stellar performer in that sector
- innovators
- political goodwill going forward
- market sentiment

My 2 Cents.



True, but the fund managers are looking at the entire African Market. Our bourse has relative small caps companies to attract the serious fund managers. In Kenya they could look at Safcom, KCB, Equity, EABL, KQ. Other stocks have too few shares to attract the fund managers. The darling markets I coud guess, JSE, Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya in that order. Better us, ever tried buying shares in UG? You get odd lots of 2040 for Stanbic Ug.
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bss
#6 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 5:16:32 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/19/2010
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
@PKoli - Thanks for the info.

In the shores of African markets, the tide should be coming our way faster because of the perceived reduced political risk in this country Kenya as well as the optimistic economic forecasts, factors which when combined are independent to this market.

As an NSE investor, I'm looking at the profits accruing from INCREASED foreign investor participation which is what the above will result in. When they were doing 70% of the trades as compared to the 40% or so recently, the lift in share prices was great. Their robust RETURN to this specific market and active participation could result in higher capital gains per share for an investor at the NSE as compared to the other markets where their economic environments/optimism could be nothing dramatic compared to their first half.
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PKoli
#7 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 5:23:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
bss wrote:
@PKoli - Thanks for the info.

In the shores of African markets, the tide should be coming our way faster because of the perceived reduced political risk in this country Kenya as well as the optimistic economic forecasts, factors which when combined are independent to this market.

As an NSE investor, I'm looking at the profits accruing from INCREASED foreign investor participation which is what the above will result in. When they were doing 70% of the trades as compared to the 40% or so recently, the lift in share prices was great. Their robust RETURN to this specific market and active participation could result in higher capital gains per share for an investor at the NSE as compared to the other markets where their economic environments/optimism could be nothing dramatic compared to their first half.


Absolutely correct. Just get into the right securities with alot of foreign sponsorship. Enter before the big boys. Case in point is the Stanbic Uganda, I have been accumulating from last year when it was UGx120. I bought my last batch last month at UGx25, today it has hit UGx 240. Reason, the fund managers are chasing it.
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bss
#8 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 11:35:13 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/19/2010
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
On the flip side, using current foreign ownership to buy-in as compared to company performance could be wrought with risk. I know my market feel better than foreigners. Access Kenya and Safaricom are examples of boom-bust share price performers despite historical foreign ownership...

I will consider Uganda more definitively closer to their Parliamentary and Presidential elections next year - 2011 when a sell off could be on the cards...can they pls first get the ATS going.
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PKoli
#9 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 12:14:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
bss wrote:
On the flip side, using current foreign ownership to buy-in as compared to company performance could be wrought with risk. I know my market feel better than foreigners. Access Kenya and Safaricom are examples of boom-bust share price performers despite historical foreign ownership...

I will consider Uganda more definitively closer to their Parliamentary and Presidential elections next year - 2011 when a sell off could be on the cards...can they pls first get the ATS going.


They are using ATS but volumes still low. Ugandans hardly trade. Immobolization of share certificates was not very succesful
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AltonDelmote
#10 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 3:39:05 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 8/20/2010
Posts: 1
Location: usa
Thanks for the helpful and nice information....
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